Ahead of this weekend’s men’s Sweet 16 games, we’re breaking down why each of the remaining teams will and won’t make the Final Four. We’re going region-by-region, moving now to the South (click here for the East), where Baylor, Villanova, Arkansas and Oral Roberts compete for a spot in college basketball’s final weekend.
No. 1 Baylor vs. No. 5 Villanova (Saturday, 5:15 p.m. ET, CBS)Baylor
How it got here: Beat No. 16 Hartford, 79–55; beat No. 9 Wisconsin, 76–63
Why it will make the Final Four: The Bears have undoubtedly been one of the three most complete teams in the country all season. A February COVID-19 pause derailed some of the team’s momentum—particularly on the defensive end—and led to its first two losses, but we’re a full month out now from its return. Baylor’s pressure forced sure-handed Wisconsin into 14 turnovers, something that should concern a Villanova team missing its starting point guard. The Bears’ path to the final weekend isn’t daunting, with the No. 2 and No. 4 seeds in their region having already been eliminated. Their offense is incredibly hard to stop because of all of its weapons, from stars Jared Butler and Davion Mitchell to reserves Matthew Mayer and Adam Flagler. Oh yeah, and they collectively shoot from three better than anyone in the country.
MORE: Ranking the Men's Sweet 16 Teams | Dark Horse Contenders
Why it won’t: Just three times this season have the Bears failed to score 1.0 points per possession. They lost two of those games, to Kansas and Oklahoma State. What else was in common in those defeats? They were two of only three times this season that Baylor shot below 31% from three. The only game it won while doing that was over Iowa State, a team that went 2–22 this season and didn’t win a single Big 12 game. Since returning from that COVID-19 pause, the Bears’ defense has ranked 127th nationally, per BartTorvik.com. While it may be getting back to its elite form, anything less leaves more room for error if the threes aren’t falling. If a team like Villanova or Arkansas gets hot from three, things could get uncomfortable.